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January 2017

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Jan. 26th, 2017

CAT 2017 EPS vs STOCK PRICE

Jan. 24th, 2017

visualization of us equities

Jan. 18th, 2017

uranium is finally a long term buy

Jan. 16th, 2017

EM to outperform DM next 5-7 years

buy TRY bonds!



Dec. 29th, 2016

шаманство)

Dec. 24th, 2016

us gdp accelerated a bit

not convincing enough though

Nov. 9th, 2016

whoever wins - short themes we've been shorting: consumer credit, inflated M&A, overpriced hypes

because what??? GROWTH IS SET TO SLOW, RECESSION POSSIBLE

Nov. 6th, 2016

Пока никто не заметил.... это в долларах США если что

Nov. 3rd, 2016

пора похеджировать лонги в биткоине, + во фьюче контанго есть

(Bloomberg) --
China’s regulators are studying measures to limit transactions that use bitcoins to take funds out of the country, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials are considering policies including restricting domestic bitcoin exchanges from moving the cryptocurrency to platforms outside the nation and imposing quotas on the amount of bitcoins that can be sent abroad, the people said. Regulators noticed recently that some investors bought bitcoins on local exchanges and sold them offshore, evading rules on foreign exchange and cross-border fund flows, the people added. They declined to be identified because the information isn’t public.

Oct. 29th, 2016

отличная цитата из последнего письма Айнхорна (гринлайт капитал)

“All experts are experts for things that did happen. There are no
experts for things that may happen.”
— David Ben-Gurion

Oct. 26th, 2016

очень характерная для наших дней безответственность

никто кто покупал\размещал не доживет до матюрити

Oct. 21st, 2016

its probably nothing but)))

general electric
*GE SEES '16 ORGANIC GROWTH 0-2%, SAW GROWTH 2-4% IN JULY

GE Revenue 3q16 forecast dynamic


....
Honeywell Posts First Profit Drop Since 2011 on Weak Jet Demand

Honeywell International Inc. reported quarterly profit that fell for the first time since at least 2011, as sales of aerospace parts and industrial goods weakened.
*HONEYWELL SEES YR SALES $39.4B-$39.6B, SAW $40B-$40.6B
....

and this

Bombardier Inc. will cut an additional 7,500 jobs — more than 10 percent of its workforce — as the maker of trains and airplanes accelerates a restructuring plan after taking on billions of dollars of debt developing its marquee C Series jetliner

.....
and this

*DAIMLER: NO MORE GROWTH SEEN IN U.S. MARKET
*DAIMLER: U.S. MARKET VOLUMES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW PRIOR YR
*DAIMLER CFO SAYS BREXIT IMPACT SLOWLY BECOMING APPARENT
....
*DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK STILL TILTED TO DOWNSIDE
...
Nestle SA cut its full-year forecast after the world’s biggest food company’s nine-month revenue rose at the weakest pace in more than a decade, hurt by slowing growth in emerging markets and deflation in Europe and North America.

Revenue will gain about 3.5 percent on an organic basis in 2016, the Vevey, Switzerland-based maker of Nespresso coffee said in a statement Thursday, abandoning a goal for growth similar to last year’s 4.2 percent. Sales gained 3.3 percent on that basis in the first nine months of the year, missing analysts’ estimates.
...

and new lows in CNY

Sep. 20th, 2016

continue to short consumer credit exposure basket

Sep. 12th, 2016

time to buy more bitcoin

в штатах реален крах аля 1987
не продавать "дорогой вол"!!
var shock in place

Sep. 2nd, 2016

best investors

Aug. 16th, 2016

money market funds liquidation

Aug. 10th, 2016

squeeze over. re-short everything

inflated m&a
overpriced hypes
acquisition targets
consumer credit exposure, including luxury goods and retailing like tif, hbi, bc, fl

Jul. 26th, 2016

some earnings

*CATERPILLAR NOT EXPECTING UPTURN IN MINING, OIL & GAS INDUSTRY
*CATERPILLAR CUTS YR FORECAST
*CAT SEES CURRENT COMPETITIVE PRESSURE TO CONTINUE FOR '16
*DISCOVER 2Q PROV FOR LOAN LOSSES $411M, UP $105M VS PRIOR YR
*DFS 2Q NET CHARGE-OFF RATE EX PCI LOANS UP 11BP TO 2.27%
*DISCOVER 2Q TOTAL PAYMENTS VOLUME DOWN 3% YOY
*HALLIBURTON SAYS IT CUT NEARLY 9% OF ITS GLOBAL WORKFORCE IN 2Q
*INTEL SEES HIGH-SINGLE-DIGIT PC MARKET CONTRACTION IN 2016
*INTEL SAID CORPORATE SERVER PURCHASES FELL
*INTEL SAID DATA CENTER CPU ASP FELL IN QUARTER

Jul. 25th, 2016

boom!

(Bloomberg) --
Banco Santander SA’s car-financing unit in the U.S. tumbled in New York trading after saying it will delay release of its second-quarter financial report.

Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc.’s shares fell 15 percent to $10.09 at 9:33 a.m., the most intraday since January 27. The stock declined 25 percent this year through July 22, compared with the 1 percent advance of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index.

The lender said it was “in discussions with its current and previous independent accountants regarding certain accounting matters, primarily related to the company’s discount accretion and credit loss allowance methodologies,” according to a statement Monday from the Dallas-based company. The resolution may affect prior financial statements, as well, said the bank, which was scheduled to report second-quarter results on Wednesday.

“We expect weakness in the stock given as this is the second delay in filing of its financial statements in the past six months, raising investor concerns regarding processes and controls at the company,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Richard Shane said in a note to investors.

Santander Consumer in March lowered its profit figures for the last three years and the fourth quarter after earlier missing a second deadline for publishing its annual report. In the March 31 filing, the firm acknowledged deficiencies in its reporting, including its method of estimating provisions and in controls to ensure employees have sufficient expertise.

Jul. 13th, 2016

shorting consumer credit

Jul. 5th, 2016

when the boat leaves the dock, and you are late, this happens when you try to catch up

long treasuries = best sharpe ever

Jul. 4th, 2016

лучший трейд

фиксировать лонг в 30и летних трежерис?
второй год всем питчу и пушу трейд в лонг длинных трежерей
ибо
- мировой рост замедляется
- геополитические риски увеличиваются
- разрыв между доходами самых бедных и самых богатых растет
- демографический цикл разворачивается (больше пенсионеров чем молодых сотрудников)
- вероятность рецессии увеличивается

повышение ставки было идеальным моментом запрыгнуть в последний вагон уходящего локомотива

как результат - новый лоу по доходностям в 10и летке и почти новый лоу (новый хай по цене) в 30и летке

лонг трежерей это трейд с доходностью 20% за полтора года с шарпом 3!

Jul. 1st, 2016

rally "reasons"

1) talk of a deal between MDLZ and HSY. The WSJ first broke the news at ~10:30amET and while HSY ultimately rejected a $107/shr offer investors were heartened by the prospect of a ~$25B transaction;

2) speculation of a solution to the Italian bank problem. The WSJ published an article at ~10:30amET (http://goo.gl/rRj2B9) talking about how Rome received approval to create a liquidity backstop for its banking system (the article was a bit misleading – this backstop only deals w/bank liabilities and doesn’t address the capital deficit, something that still needs a solution);

3) BOE Governor Mark Carney gave a speech (11amET http://goo.gl/IGllE9) and strongly hinted at something most everyone was anticipating already: the BOE will likely be easing policy in the coming months;

4) Bloomberg at ~12pmET (http://goo.gl/6lTs4A) reported on considerations going on inside the ECB to potentially change the current APP criteria as the post-Brexit collapse in yields has shrunk the pool of bonds eligible for purchase (this doesn’t necessarily represent an expansion in accommodation but simply a rule adjustment to keep pace w/market developments).

Jun. 30th, 2016

оценочное суждение, офтопик, апдейт по рынку

ирина яровая - бестолковая тупая пизда

как можно быть такой ебанутой что бы писать такие законы? только если ты чья-то пешка или бестолковка

по рынку увеличиваем шорт баскет exposed consumer credit stocks
рецессия в штатах уже скоро на всех мониторах планеты)

ads ally axp bac cacc cof dfs praa sc syf и hbi для компании

ps декабрьские путы на рассел релоад бай тоже

Jun. 28th, 2016

g7 central banks preparing a joint action((

продолжают бороться с экономической гравитацией
видимо путов надо продать таки для хеджа шортов

Risk happens slowly, then all at once)))

держим шорты

Jun. 12th, 2016

отрицательные ставки - банки проедают капитал?

http://www.reuters.com/article/belgium-banking-optima-idUSL8N19039J

длинный фьюч на биткоин по 700 можно похеджить лонг... на пару дней))

Jun. 4th, 2016

recession around the corner, add to longs in 30y treasuries

May. 29th, 2016

порвало чутка биток, пожар в китае?

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